Putting a number on people risk

Why quantification matters

A finding that says absence is rising competes with everything else on an executive agenda. A finding that estimates £380K of overtime premium and agency cover does not.

Building a defensible estimate

Use the costs the business already recognises: overtime premium, agency rates, replacement cost, lost delivery capacity. Show the assumptions alongside the number.

An estimate with visible working is far more useful than a precise-looking number nobody can interrogate.

Keeping it honest

Ranges beat single figures where the underlying data is noisy, and every estimate should be revisited as the signals move.